The Psychology of Self-Deception: Why We Believe in Strange Things

We all have a natural inclination to believe. From superstitions to conspiracy theories, the human brain is wired to find patterns and meaning, even where none exists. This tendency, while often harmless, can sometimes lead us down a path of self-deception and even dangerous beliefs.

The Natural State of Belief

Belief is the default mode of our brains. We are pattern-seeking primates, constantly connecting the dots to make sense of the world around us. This process, known as patternicity, is the tendency to find meaningful patterns in both meaningful and meaningless noise.

Patternicity: Finding Meaning in the Noise

Consider this: You're walking on the African plains three million years ago. You hear a rustle in the grass. Is it a dangerous predator, or just the wind? Your decision could be life or death.

• Type 1 Error (False Positive): Believing a pattern is real when it's not. In this case, thinking the rustle is a predator when it's just the wind. The consequence? You're more cautious, but ultimately unharmed.
• Type 2 Error (False Negative): Not believing a pattern is real when it is. Ignoring the rustle, only to be eaten by a predator. The consequence? You're removed from the gene pool.

Because the cost of a Type 2 error is so much higher, our brains are wired to err on the side of caution and assume that all patterns are real. This is why we're so prone to finding patterns, even when they don't exist.

The Illusion of Control

Our tendency to see patterns is amplified when we feel a lack of control. When faced with uncertainty, we're more likely to see illusory patterns, even in random noise. This is why baseball players are more superstitious when batting (where failure is common) than when fielding (where success is more likely).

The Role of Dopamine

Dopamine, a neurotransmitter associated with reward and motivation, plays a crucial role in patternicity. Studies have shown that:

• Increasing dopamine levels (through drugs like amphetamines) can lead to increased pattern detection and even creativity.
• Decreasing dopamine levels (through neuroleptic drugs) can reduce psychotic behavior, such as paranoia, delusions, and hallucinations – all of which are essentially incorrect patterns.

Dopamine affects our signal-to-noise ratio, influencing how accurately we find patterns. Too little dopamine, and we miss real patterns. Too much, and we see patterns everywhere, even when they're not there.

Agenticity: Infusing Patterns with Meaning

Beyond simply finding patterns, we also have a tendency to infuse them with meaning, intention, and agency. This is agenticity – the belief in invisible agents with power and intention that control our lives.

From Animism to Conspiracy Theories

Agenticity is the basis for:

• Animism
• Polytheism
• Monotheism
• Belief in aliens, intelligent designers, and government conspiracists.

We project agency onto the world around us, often attributing events to the actions of hidden forces. While some conspiracies are real, the tendency to see conspiracies everywhere stems from our innate desire to find someone or something in control.

The Power of Belief

Our brains are wired to find patterns and meaning, even when they don't exist. This tendency, while often helpful, can also lead us down a path of self-deception. By understanding the psychology behind belief, we can become more aware of our own biases and more critical of the patterns we see in the world.

In conclusion: Recognizing the delicate balance between skepticism and open-mindedness is key. We must strive to be creative and receptive to new ideas, while remaining vigilant against falling for misinformation and harmful beliefs. Understanding the mechanisms of patternicity and agenticity empowers us to navigate the world with greater clarity and discernment.